A Change in Iowa

The 8-vote difference in the Iowa caucus was unprecedented.  It was the closest contest in Iowa caucus history.  Oddly enough, this 8-vote difference has made it difficult for Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum to benefit fully from what are historically known as huge bragging rights for an Iowa victor.

Image from Politico.com

Today things changed dramatically.  The Iowa Republican party of Iowa released newly certified results for the Iowa contest showing Rick Santorum with a 34 point lead over Mitt Romney.  They initially declared the race a virtual tie or deadlock, because 8 of the Iowa precincts could not be certified.

Later today, GOP chairman Matt Strawn, went a step further than the GOP and announced, that even without the certified totals from 8 precincts, he was ready to announce that Rick Santorum was the true winner in Iowa.

It has been said that Mitt Romney has personally called Rick Santorum to congratulate him on the win.

The outcome is obviously a real blow to the Romney camp--bragging rights stripped never feels good to any candidate.  But this outcome is also a huge blow to the Santorum camp.

If Rick Santorum truly won Iowa, then these newly adjusted caucus results have hurt him tremendously in his bid for the nomination.  If he won there, then should be able to walk away certain that his victory was real.  This delay cost him.  Furthermore, without certified results from 8 precincts, one will always question.

Iowa has long prided themselves in playing a key role in our presidential election process.  By many accounts, the outcome of the Iowa primary is key to a candidate being able to secure the nomination for their party.  The Iowa caucus is incredibly meaningful.

This announcement today that the certified results have been changed regardless of the fact that not every precinct was certified is outrageous and it is questionable why no one seems to be holding the Iowa GOP accountable for a monstrous mistake.  Their inability to irrefutably announce a clear winner is shameful.

With regards to Mitt Romney?  This change is obviously demoralizing and could play a major role reversal in his campaign momentum.

Truth is, this isn't good for either side; both got robbed.

I read an interview that NBC News conducted with Des Moines Register reporter David Yepsen.  He nailed it when he said, "One of the strengths of the Iowa caucus process is that the state was a level playing field.  Candidates could come to the state and get an honest airing.  There aren't political machines or history of fraud.  The inaccurate counting tarnishes that reputation."

I couldn't agree more.

The Iowa GOP blew it and should be ashamed of themselves for not accurately tallying and certifying the votes.  They have lost credibility.

A Powerful Romney Advocate

News reports emerged this morning that Governor Rick Perry is dropping his Presidential bid.  His news conference is scheduled for 11:00 ET.  It will be interesting to see who wins his now coveted endorsement.

After a dismal showing in Iowa, New Hampshire and poor polling results this week in South Carolina, the one-time Republican favorite decided to call it quits.  Sources indicate that the Newt Gingrich camp was putting a lot of pressure on Perry and also Santorum to drop out so not to split the Evangelical vote, which Gingrich argues would give him a secure edge over a Romney victory this Saturday.

In politics, it is amazing how much can change in a day.

Photo from cindycosta.com

The crucial outcome of the South Carolina primary is just a few days away, and with so much on the line, every step is a critical test of endurance and perserverance for the remaining 4 candidates.

Every step counts.  Every endorsement helps.

Yesterday, CNN did a fascinating story on perhaps one of Mitt Romney's most crucial allies in South Carolina.  Her name is Cindy Costa and by all accounts she is considered one of the most influential Republican forces in the state.  She is a well-known and respected Republican Chairwoman.  She is a very devout and outspoken Evangelical and of all the candidates, she is endorsing Mitt Romney and she is actively campaigning for him.  (Click to read full CNN story).

Most media sources are not talking about her campaigning efforts on behalf of Mitt Romney, but it goes without saying that her influence is far-reaching and invaluable.  Costa's influence is persuasive and her opinion is extremely influential.  She is a trusted advocate for the Republican base and her endorsement of Mitt Romney, whose LDS "Mormon" faith is still an obstacle for many South Carolina voters, is extremely valuable.

It will be interesting to see how far-reaching her influence is felt.

With latest polls indicating that the South Carolina race is tightening, a South Carolina victory is going to be a a tough fight for Romney.  Saturday can't come soon enough.  With another Republican debate tonight against the "debating machine" Gingrich, attacks from all rivals as well as the sitting President, it will undoubtedly make for a long and exhausting couple of days--sure to be full of many twists and turns.

Go Mitt!

Income...Whose Money Is It?

In the past 24 hours, the media is in a frenzy over Mitt Romney's announcement that he paid a 15% effective tax rate on his income.  Outcry and complaints over unfair tax codes and unfair breaks for the wealthy has dominated the headlines.  Even rival Newt Gingrich has chimed in. (Wait, whose side is he on again?)

And yet, in all of this commotion, not one report or person has suggested that Mitt Romney has done anything illegal or unethical.  

I am not a tax expert nor do I claim to fully understand our complex tax code system, but from what I understand, Mitt Romney's effective tax rate is completely legal.  Mitt Romney is a retired partner of Bain Capital and he is paying taxes on the capital gain of his investments.  The IRS imposes a 15% flat tax on capital gains...for everyone.  The same rule applies to stocks.

I would argue that the IRS got this tax right because it encourages and enables the wealthy to re-invest in the economy.

Over the course of his career, Romney's income was most likely taxed at 33%-35%.  He is no longer gainfully employed by Bain Capital.  I am guessing that he invested his earnings back into private equity firms like Bain Capital and is currently living off the gain.  Mitt Romney's tax rate is 15% because his income fits within the tax code.  It is completely legal and ethical.

The left is pouncing on this 15% arguing fairness and whether or not a multimillionaire should be allowed to pay such a low tax rate.  This is ridiculous and plays at the heart of the conservative movement.  The real question that should be asked is, "Income...Whose money is it really?  Why does the left think that Mitt Romney's income belongs to them?"

***

From the day that Obama was sworn into office, he has basically declared war on the rich.  "Redistribution of Wealth", "Fairness" and "Economic Equality"--themes that have echoed in nearly every major speech.

Obama believes that government can fix the economy.  He has led a $775 billion stimulus to artificially inject money into the US economy; it hasn't made a difference.  His claim: Government spending leads to job creation.  Well, it didn't work and most would say that it failed miserably.  The stimulus did not work.  

Liberals believe that the wealthy in our country should pay more in taxes.  A surge in taxes would allow the government to "redistribute" the wealth to fund programs to benefit the poor and middle class.  

Conservatives however, believe that the wealthy should not be penalized for success and firmly argue that the wealthy are responsible for job creation.

Mitt Romney's current tax situation is a perfect example of how the conservatives got it right.

***

Private equity firms take money from people like Mitt Romney and invest it in companies that are underperforming, but have potential to be be more prosperous.  They reshape these companies with the hope of making them more profitable--making them more successful.  If the investments work, the companies succeed and are more likely to hire additional employees.  

The tax code in America is a mess.  Taxing individuals disproportionately higher based on their income seems immoral and cannot be backed up by the Constitution, however I would argue that the IRS flat tax on capital gains is one tax they got right--because it allows the wealthy to re-invest in the economy.

Let's be honest, Mitt Romney's investment money is in a much safer and profitable place than in the hands of our legislators.

I firmly believe that a nation cannot tax itself into prosperity.   James Madison said, "I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents."

Photo from abcnews.com

I couldn't agree more.  Enough with the attacks on Mitt Romney's tax rate.  Quite frankly, he should be praised for having enough faith in our economy to invest in firms that are creating jobs.

Another great example of how Mitt Romney's vision for America will create a more prosperous nation.

Gingrich's Night?

Last night, Fox News hosted another Republican debate and it proved to be one of the most lively and interesting debates yet.

The crowd was very engaged and the questions were insightful.   With an additional 30 second response time to the 1 minute response that the candidates have been used to in previous debates, they were able to articulate their case to earn the loyalty of the much coveted South Carolina voter.

By all accounts, it was Newt Gingrich's strongest debate.  But let's be honest, this comes as no surprise.  Gingrich is a great debater.  His quick wit, cunning responses and eloquent delivery make him seem like the "Wise Grandpa" in the room.  Props to Newt. 

One of his strongest moments of the night came when Fox's Juan Williams asked Gingrich about his controversial proposal to have low income children volunteer to work as janitors and aids at their schools in order to earn money and develop a pride in work ethic.  Newt seized the moment and nailed his response.

He responded by saying, "First of all Juan, the fact is that more people have been put on food stamps by Barack Obama than any president in American history.  I believe that every American of every background has been endowed by their creator with the right to pursue happiness. And if that makes liberals unhappy, I'm going to continue to find ways to help poor people learn how to get a job, learn how to get a better job and learn some day to own the job."  That response earned him a standing ovation.  

Gingrich made an effective case, but is it too late?

He scored very poorly in Iowa and today a blow to any momentum he was feeling has been wiped out by a newly revised New Hampshire election tally.  The new tally actually places Gingrich in 5th place behind Rick Santorum's 4th place finish. (Click to read full CNN article).

Furthermore, momentum will be hard to gain when all week Gingrich has been playing nasty politics with his negative attacks on Mitt Romney's business record.  Many have questioned if Gingrich has actually become a mouth-piece for the left with his attacks on capitalism, free enterprise and questioning the morality behind profits made by executives.  

Conservatives have had a bad taste in their mouths and the Obama machine has loved every second of it.

Unfortunately, Gingrich's latest campaign strategy has only reminded voters that he is a divisive and polarizing political figure.  All of his successes as Speaker of the House and impressive debate performances continue to be overshadowed by his current alienating campaign strategies.  History is repeating itself--he was this same person in Washington DC.

***

Saturday's contest in South Carolina is just a few days away, but I am sure for the Romney camp it feels like an eternity.

Hopefully, despite the attacks from all rivals, voters in South Carolina will recognize that Mitt Romney's successes have been exemplary.  His experience in the private sector in stabilizing failing companies is extraordinary.  His bipartisan reforms and balancing the budget without raising taxes in Massachusetts was remarkable.  His discipline in restoring the failing 2002 Olympics from disaster was profound.

Mitt Romney has a long history of making weak things stronger, broken programs functional, and prosperity attainable.

Mitt Romney's disciplined and unprecedented leadership is exactly what America needs in a President.    Under his direction, America will become stronger--America will prosper--America will better.  Under a Mitt Romney Presidency, "it could be worse"--as recently said by President Obama in regards to the current state of our economy--will never be tolerated.

We deserve more.  Now more than ever, America needs Mitt Romney.

Another Key Endorsement

Outside of Jon Huntsman, Mitt Romney picked up another key endorsement today.  With sights already glimpsing ahead to the highly contested and sought after Florida primary, Florida Representative John Mica endorsed Mitt Romney.

Representative Mica lives in a key Republican district which includes Orlando and Daytona Beach.  His endorsement comes at a crucial time in the race.  He said, "And, as I look at the field of candidates in this election, no one matches the outstanding business and elected executive credentials of Mitt Romney."

Photo from TIME.com

Although many critics and Romney rivals would be quick to say that these endorsements don't carry a lot of weight, they do.  They are influential because it demonstrates that the momentum is behind Romney.

Endorsements matter.  (Just ask any Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum campaign staff member how much they would have valued such an endorsement today).

Momentum is game changing.

Go Mitt!

A Huntsman Factor?

I'll admit that I was a little surprised last night to read that Jon Huntsman was going to suspend his presidential campaign.  I liked Huntsman.  I was always shocked he couldn't gain traction with the conservative base. He was a refreshing candidate and his overall experience was extraordinary.  

The political news media seemed enamored by Jon Huntsman and were continually questioning why conservatives weren't giving him a closer look.  

Photo from Esquire.com

In many ways, he seemed like the perfect "Anti-Mitt" candidate.  A conservative Christian family man with sound business experience, 8 years as one of Utah's most popular governors,  impressive record of job creation in Utah, an Ambassadorship under two presidents and experience working in the administration of four US Presidents.  Furthermore, he speaks Chinese fluently.  Impressive resume to say the least.  Unfortunately for Huntsman, his message never resonated.  Backing out before a dismal South Carolina turnout on Saturday was probably the best way to bow out with dignity.

So, today he ended his bid for the White House and endorsed Mitt Romney.  He said, "Despite our differences and the space between us on some of the issues...I believe it is now time for our party to unite around Mitt Romney, the best candidate best equipped to defeat Barack Obama."

What does this mean for Romney?  Most polls would indicate that a bump from Huntsman backing out will be slight if any.  However, in South Carolina where Newt Gingrich has declared a negative media attack or "Armageddon-like" assault on Romney's business record, the stakes could not be higher.   So, even a sliver of additional support might be just enough of a cushion for a crucial Romney victory on Saturday.  A victory which almost guarantees him the nomination and a Romney - Obama match up this fall.

Politics--it is an interesting beast.  It is about love and war, hate and loyalty, passion and persuasion, rivals and advocates.  It can all change in a day.  

The end to Jon Huntsman's bid for the Republican nomination may not mean a numbers surge for Romney...yet.  But it goes without saying, that having a rival turn into an endorser can be game changing for any candidate.  We saw this same thing happen when Governor Tim Pawlenty dropped out of the race last fall.  Once a huge Romney rival, he has since become one of Mitt Romney's most vocal weapons.  Pawlenty's message is effective.  Pawlenty's support is persuasive.  Pawlenty's endorsement is invaluable.

To have someone like Jon Huntsman now promoting Mitt Romney is great news for Mitt.  Although many would argue that it is only self-serving and only indicates a possible future in politics for Huntsman, the point is that Huntsman gets it.  His candidacy may have been weak, but a Huntsman endorsement is huge.

It is a great day for Mitt.  

A Religious Conservative Rally

A group of 150 religious conservatives are gathering today in Texas to unite their support behind one Republican nominee--Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich or Rick Perry.  The plan is to identify the best conservative candidate and then rally to help him win the ticket.

Bryan Fischer, the Director of Issue Analysis for the American Family Association told NPR that conservatives don't want to make the same mistake they made in 2008.  He said, "I think some social conservatives are doing some 20-20 hindsight analysis of what happened in 2008.  Realizing that they had a social conservative candidate to back in (former Arkansas Governor) Mike Huckabee, they didn't coalesce around him, and that provided a path for (Arizona Senator) John McCain -- who was not a fighter on our issues -- to win the nomination." (click here for full NPR article).

John McCain won the Republican ticket and as we know, he lost to Barack Obama.

I realize that I am just an outside observer, but from this article, do I understand Fischer correctly?  Is he essentially saying that had this same group really rallied behind Mike Huckabee in 2008, then the outcome would have been different?

Am I supposed to believe that Mike Huckabee could have beat Barack Obama?

In my humble opinion, Mike Huckabee didn't stand a chance.  No one did.  Even if every conservative in this country had rallied behind him, he didn't stand a chance to defeat Barack Obama.  And it had nothing to do with conservatism.

In 2008, Americans were fed up with George Bush and quite frankly, fed up with anything that even resembled his 8-years in the White House.  Americans were scared about finances and job security.  Americans were bitter about the Iraq war--a war that arguably should have never started.  Americans wanted a change.

Barack Obama's message of "Hope" and "Change" emerged at the perfect time.  

Furthermore, the vigor and emotion behind his candidacy was hard to match.  How could any candidate, in either party, compete with the excitement that was surging behind him?  America was about to vote for the first African American President.  History was being made and an overwhelming majority wanted to be a part of it.  A conservative from Arkansas and a Senator from Arizona didn't stand a chance.

Things are different now.  The excitement has settled.  The confetti has long been cleaned up and Americans are now able to see just how much things have "changed."  We don't like what we see.

Our economy is weaker.  Millions of Americans are still without work.  Countless Americans have lost their homes.  Our national debt has increased an astounding $4 Trillion dollars under his presidency.  We are completely dependent on foreign oil and money from the Chinese.  We are a weaker nation.

President Obama has certainly tried to fix things.  A record $775 Billion dollar stimulus was artificially injected into the economy to validate his creed for a bigger, stronger government.  It didn't work.  He has failed us.

Unbelievably, the President announced today that he will ask Congress to raise $1.2 Trillion in the debt ceiling to continue to pay for his failed programs.

***

Americans are hungry for stability.  Hungry for prosperity.  Hungry for accountability from our leaders.  Hungry for substance.

Mitt Romney's candidacy is now emerging at the perfect time.

America will benefit from Romney's know-how.  His private sector experience is invaluable.  His career has been about making weak things stronger.  He has a record of meticulously analyzing failing systems and making them better.  His experience demonstrates a person who cautiously spends other people's money and it demonstrates an individual who is used to being held accountable for how that money is spent.

He will do the same thing for America.  His experience shows that he can.  His discipline shows that he will.

So, I would invite this group of religious conservatives to change its course.  Include Mitt Romney--also a Christian conservative--in your discussions and rally fervently behind him.  Mitt Romney, the candidate who is not only best suited to beat Barack Obama, but is best suited to surge America to greatness.

As I always say, now more than ever, America needs Mitt Romney.