A primary win is important in any state, but Florida is critical because the voter base is so diverse and it tends to be a pretty good indicator for the mindset of the broadest group of Americans. A win tomorrow shows that Romney will have passed a very crucial test.
In just seven days, Mitt Romney emerged from the rubble of a crushing loss in South Carolina. He refined his message, he sharpened his attacks and he went on the offensive. His message resonated.
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| Photo from sunshinestatenews.com |
Romney leaves the sunshine state with some much-needed momentum, but it goes without saying that the fight is far from over.
Romney ran a great campaign in Florida. It was remarkably well-organized and credit to his staff and vast volunteer base for re-energizing the support needed to put Romney ahead of a surging Newt Gingrich. Many credit Romney's debate performances, his advertisements and his offensive strategy.
Gingrich has complained of being outspent in Florida. He was outspent, but I don't believe that it why he lost support. Romney and Pro-Romney PACs spent a total of $16 million compared to Gingrich and Pro-Gingrich PAC's $4 million. Money is important, but a clear and effective message is what made the difference. Romney's message, his experience and his electability resonated with voters.
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The month of February appears to be in Romney's favor. Only one scheduled Republican debate and primaries in Nevada, Arizona, Michigan will most likely prevent his rivals from having a chance to shine. But all four candidates have declared a fight to the bitter end. The negative attacks are sure to get even nastier.
This is no time to exhale.
The attacks against Romney have done some damage. Gingrich has attacked Romney's greatest strength--his long and successful career at Bain Capital. Furthermore, he tried to portray Romney as a pretentious millionaire whose career experience might not be as noteworthy as the Romney camp has boasted. Gingrich was heavily criticized for these attacks because they essentially discredit the role of capitalism and free-enterprise, but Gingrich persisted. His message worked. Romney's image has been tarnished.
Where does Mitt go from here? Can he reshape his image? Will his vision of a more prosperous America resonate? I believe it will, but he definitely has some work to do.
In the past 30 days, Romney has learned a lot of valuable lessons. His campaign has made convincing adjustments, but it is too early to tell how it will fare in the general election. It is too early to tell how Romney's message will stack up against a sputtering, but improving economy. President Obama is a masterful speaker and he has a billion dollar campaign fund to discredit the conservative cause. A billion dollars to show that Mitt Romney is a heartless business tycoon whose wealth makes him out-of-touch.
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| AP Photo |
Fortunately for Mitt Romney, history shows that Americans generally do not punish candidates for their wealth. The financial status of Presidents John Kennedy, George Bush and George W. Bush did not hinder their ability to get elected. But the lesson here is that history also demonstrates that it can--just ask Senator John Kerry.
The trick for any candidate is to have a convincing and believable message. Americans are hungry for stability and aching for prosperity. Mitt Romney has a long career of repairing broken systems, improving weakened structures, making fiscally responsible decisions, and most importantly, he has a history of being accountable with other people's money.
Mitt Romney has a history of making weak things stronger. Obama's history doesn't. Even a billion dollar campaign machine cannot compete with that.
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